diff --git a/scripts/profile_sync.py b/scripts/profile_sync.py
index 998a4e6d..385ca2a4 100644
--- a/scripts/profile_sync.py
+++ b/scripts/profile_sync.py
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ recalable from what needs the code read again.
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 import argparse
+import contextlib
 import difflib
 import json
 import os
@@ -16,6 +17,7 @@ import posixpath
 import re
 import subprocess
 import sys
+import tempfile
 from dataclasses import asdict, dataclass
 from datetime import date
 from pathlib import Path
@@ -2175,6 +2177,10 @@ def bump_commit(
     if pending_recale(report, accept_changed, text):
         return False
     document = yaml.safe_load(text)
+    if document.get("source_commit") == report.head:
+        # Rewriting the pin to the value it already holds is not a bump, and
+        # announcing it buries the profiles that did move.
+        return False
     expected = dict(document)
     expected["source_commit"] = report.head
     if document.get("source_commit"):
@@ -2525,15 +2531,24 @@ def _apply_writes(args, name: str, profile: dict, report: ProfileReport) -> None
             print(f"{name}: would write source_commit {report.pin[:7]}")
         elif backfill_commit(path, report.pin):
             print(f"{name}: source_commit {report.pin[:7]}")
-    if args.rebase_refs and not args.dry_run and not report.skipped:
-        for line in rebase_refs(path, report, args.accept_changed):
-            print(f"{name}: {line}")
-    if (
-        args.bump_commit
-        and not args.dry_run
-        and bump_commit(path, report, args.accept_changed)
-    ):
-        print(f"{name}: source_commit -> {report.head[:7]}")
+    if not (args.rebase_refs or args.bump_commit):
+        return
+    with contextlib.ExitStack() as stack:
+        if args.dry_run:
+            # Plan on a copy through the production write path rather than a
+            # parallel branch: the bump then reads the text the rebase would
+            # have left, which is the only text under which it is reachable.
+            scratch = stack.enter_context(tempfile.TemporaryDirectory())
+            target = Path(scratch) / path.name
+            target.write_bytes(path.read_bytes())
+            recale, bumped = "would recale ", "would set source_commit ->"
+        else:
+            target, recale, bumped = path, "", "source_commit ->"
+        if args.rebase_refs and not report.skipped:
+            for line in rebase_refs(target, report, args.accept_changed):
+                print(f"{name}: {recale}{line}")
+        if args.bump_commit and bump_commit(target, report, args.accept_changed):
+            print(f"{name}: {bumped} {report.head[:7]}")
 
 
 def _cited_paths(report: ProfileReport) -> list[str]:
diff --git a/tests/test_profile_sync.py b/tests/test_profile_sync.py
index 1c0fcd1e..e69c6079 100644
--- a/tests/test_profile_sync.py
+++ b/tests/test_profile_sync.py
@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
 
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+import argparse
 import contextlib
 import io
 import json
@@ -1834,6 +1835,128 @@ class TestRebaseRefs(unittest.TestCase):
         self.assertIn('source_ref: "b.c:5"', text)
 
 
+class TestWriteDryRun(unittest.TestCase):
+    """--dry-run has to plan a write, not stay silent about it.
+
+    --backfill-commits and --realign-prose have always reported what they
+    would write. --rebase-refs and --bump-commit accepted the flag and said
+    nothing, so the only way to read the plan was to let it happen.
+    """
+
+    def setUp(self):
+        self.tmp = tempfile.TemporaryDirectory()
+        self.dir = Path(self.tmp.name)
+        self.path = self.dir / "p.yml"
+        self.path.write_text(SAMPLE, encoding="utf-8")
+
+    def tearDown(self):
+        self.tmp.cleanup()
+
+    def _args(self, **over):
+        base = dict(
+            emulators_dir=str(self.dir), backfill_commits=False,
+            rebase_refs=False, bump_commit=False, accept_changed=False,
+            dry_run=True,
+        )
+        base.update(over)
+        return argparse.Namespace(**base)
+
+    def _run(self, args, report, sample=SAMPLE):
+        buffer = io.StringIO()
+        with contextlib.redirect_stdout(buffer):
+            profile_sync._apply_writes(
+                args, "p", yaml.safe_load(sample), report
+            )
+        return buffer.getvalue()
+
+    def _shifted(self):
+        part = PartResult(
+            RefPart("a.c", 10, 12, "a.c:10-12"), "SHIFTED", None, 30, 32, []
+        )
+        return ProfileReport(
+            name="p", repo="o/n", pin="pin", head="newhead",
+            entries=[EntryReport("a.bin", "a.c:10-12", "SHIFTED", [part])],
+            counts={"SHIFTED": 1},
+        )
+
+    def test_rebase_states_the_move_and_leaves_the_file(self):
+        before = self.path.read_text()
+        output = self._run(self._args(rebase_refs=True), self._shifted())
+        self.assertIn("would recale", output)
+        self.assertIn("a.c:10-12 -> a.c:30-32", output)
+        self.assertEqual(self.path.read_text(), before)
+
+    def test_a_pin_already_at_head_is_not_announced(self):
+        """A write that changes nothing must not be reported as one.
+
+        126 of 232 announced bumps on the corpus rewrote the pin to the
+        value it already held, so the plan overstated the work by more than
+        double and no reader could tell which entries meant anything.
+        """
+        part = PartResult(
+            RefPart("a.c", 10, 12, "a.c:10-12"), "ANCHORED", None, 10, 12, []
+        )
+        self.path.write_text(
+            insert_after_line(SAMPLE, "profiled_date", 'source_commit: "newhead"'),
+            encoding="utf-8",
+        )
+        report = ProfileReport(
+            name="p", repo="o/n", pin="newhead", head="newhead",
+            entries=[EntryReport("a.bin", "a.c:10-12", "ANCHORED", [part])],
+            counts={"ANCHORED": 1},
+        )
+        self.assertFalse(bump_commit(self.path, report))
+        self.assertEqual(self._run(self._args(bump_commit=True), report), "")
+
+    def test_bump_states_the_pin_and_leaves_the_file(self):
+        before = self.path.read_text()
+        part = PartResult(
+            RefPart("a.c", 10, 12, "a.c:10-12"), "ANCHORED", None, 10, 12, []
+        )
+        report = ProfileReport(
+            name="p", repo="o/n", pin="pin", head="newhead",
+            entries=[EntryReport("a.bin", "a.c:10-12", "ANCHORED", [part])],
+            counts={"ANCHORED": 1},
+        )
+        output = self._run(self._args(bump_commit=True), report)
+        self.assertIn("would set source_commit -> newhead", output)
+        self.assertEqual(self.path.read_text(), before)
+
+    def test_writes_still_happen_without_the_flag(self):
+        output = self._run(
+            self._args(rebase_refs=True, dry_run=False), self._shifted()
+        )
+        self.assertNotIn("would", output)
+        self.assertIn('source_ref: "a.c:30-32"', self.path.read_text())
+
+    def test_a_planned_bump_reads_the_prose_the_rebase_would_have_left(self):
+        """The pin is blocked by prose until the rebase moves it.
+
+        Planning the bump against the file on disk would report a refusal
+        that the real run, where the rebase lands first, never produces.
+        """
+        self.path.write_text(PROSE_SAMPLE, encoding="utf-8")
+        before = self.path.read_text()
+        part = PartResult(RefPart("a.c", 10, 10, "10"), "SHIFTED", None, 14, 14, [])
+        entry = EntryReport(
+            "notes", "a.c:10", "SHIFTED", [part], "prose", "notes"
+        )
+        report = ProfileReport(
+            name="p", repo="o/n", pin="pin", head="newhead",
+            entries=[entry], counts={"SHIFTED": 1},
+        )
+        self.assertEqual(
+            profile_sync.pending_recale(report, False, before), 1,
+            "the prose still describes the pinned revision",
+        )
+        output = self._run(
+            self._args(rebase_refs=True, bump_commit=True), report, PROSE_SAMPLE
+        )
+        self.assertIn("would recale", output)
+        self.assertIn("would set source_commit -> newhead", output)
+        self.assertEqual(self.path.read_text(), before)
+
+
 class TestBumpCommit(unittest.TestCase):
     def setUp(self):
         self.tmp = tempfile.TemporaryDirectory()
diff --git a/wiki/tools.md b/wiki/tools.md
index 8a938353..f6a59b5a 100644
--- a/wiki/tools.md
+++ b/wiki/tools.md
@@ -282,6 +282,21 @@ recaling is all or nothing per profile: a profile that still needs a
 re-read is left untouched and moves as a whole once resolved. Rewrites
 preserve the prose of annotated refs, replacing only the location.
 
+Those two writes belong in one pass, because a profile whose refs moved
+without its pin describes two revisions at once:
+
+```bash
+python scripts/profile_sync.py --all --rebase-refs --bump-commit --dry-run
+python scripts/profile_sync.py --all --rebase-refs --bump-commit
+```
+
+The first prints the plan and changes nothing: `would recale` per ref and
+`would set source_commit` per profile. It reaches that plan by running the
+real write path over a throwaway copy, so the planned bump reads the text
+the recale would have left rather than the one on disk; a pin held back by
+prose that the same pass would have moved is not reported as blocked. Drop
+`--dry-run` and the same pass writes, recale before bump on each profile.
+
 `--accept-changed` recales `CHANGED` refs too, for a profile whose diff
 has been read and judged benign. It applies to one profile at a time and
 is refused with `--all`.