diff --git a/scripts/profile_sync.py b/scripts/profile_sync.py
index 4a4bcf376..f0e3bf745 100644
--- a/scripts/profile_sync.py
+++ b/scripts/profile_sync.py
@@ -4226,6 +4226,8 @@ def _apply_writes(
         name, path, args, known
     ):
         return
+    if _gained_since_pin(args, name, profile, report):
+        return
     with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as scratch:
         # Always work on a copy. A dry run reports what it left there, a real
         # run promotes it. A recale rewrites the refs for HEAD, so the pin
@@ -4284,6 +4286,36 @@ def _apply_writes(
             print(message)
 
 
+def _gained_since_pin(
+    args: argparse.Namespace, name: str, profile: dict, report: ProfileReport
+) -> bool:
+    """Whether the cited files gained a file name or a hash literal since the pin.
+
+    Refs that still anchor say nothing of what the code added around them:
+    mame2003_plus gained two Taito G-NET BIOS sets in a zn.c whose cited
+    lines only shifted. A bump past that would document a file set the code
+    no longer has. --accept-changed says the additions were read.
+    """
+    if args.accept_changed or not report.head or report.pin == report.head:
+        return False
+    if report.new_files is None and report.new_hashes is None:
+        probe = argparse.Namespace(**{**vars(args), "detect_new_files": True, "watch_hashes": True})
+        _attach_detection(probe, profile, report)
+    gained = sorted({item["name"] for item in report.new_files or () if item.get("since_pin")})
+    added = report.new_hashes or []
+    if not (gained or added or report.detection_skipped):
+        return False
+    detail = ", ".join(gained[:5]) + (f", {len(added)} hash literal(s)" if added else "")
+    if report.detection_skipped:
+        detail = f"cited files unread ({report.detection_skipped})"
+    print(
+        f"{name}: the cited files changed beyond the refs since the pin ({detail.strip(', ')}), "
+        "nothing was written. Read them, then rerun with --accept-changed.",
+        file=sys.stderr,
+    )
+    return True
+
+
 def _cited_paths(report: ProfileReport) -> list[str]:
     return sorted(
         {part.new_path or part.part.path for e in report.entries for part in e.parts}
diff --git a/tests/test_profile_sync.py b/tests/test_profile_sync.py
index 00ddc8c05..7b98f624c 100644
--- a/tests/test_profile_sync.py
+++ b/tests/test_profile_sync.py
@@ -2526,10 +2526,40 @@ class TestWriteDryRun(unittest.TestCase):
         # Profiles live in a repository: git answers "no history" for an
         # untracked file, where outside one it answers nothing at all.
         subprocess.run(["git", "init", "-q"], cwd=self.dir, check=True)
+        # The cited files gained nothing since the pin in these fixtures.
+        from unittest import mock  # noqa: PLC0415
+
+        def nothing_gained(args, profile, report):
+            report.new_files, report.new_hashes = [], []
+
+        self._detection = mock.patch.object(
+            profile_sync, "_attach_detection", side_effect=nothing_gained
+        )
+        self._detection.start()
 
     def tearDown(self):
+        self._detection.stop()
         self.tmp.cleanup()
 
+    def test_a_file_gained_since_the_pin_holds_the_bump(self):
+        # mame2003_plus's zn.c gained two G-NET BIOS sets around refs that
+        # only shifted.
+        from unittest import mock  # noqa: PLC0415
+
+        def gained(args, profile, report):
+            report.new_files = [{"path": "zn.c", "name": "coh3002t.zip", "since_pin": True}]
+            report.new_hashes = []
+
+        before = self.path.read_text()
+        with mock.patch.object(profile_sync, "_attach_detection", side_effect=gained), \
+                contextlib.redirect_stderr(io.StringIO()) as err:
+            self._run(self._args(rebase_refs=True, dry_run=False), self._shifted())
+        self.assertEqual(self.path.read_text(), before)
+        self.assertIn("coh3002t.zip", err.getvalue())
+        with mock.patch.object(profile_sync, "_attach_detection", side_effect=gained):
+            self._run(self._args(rebase_refs=True, dry_run=False, accept_changed=True), self._shifted())
+        self.assertIn('source_commit: "newhead"', self.path.read_text())
+
     def _args(self, **over):
         base = dict(
             emulators_dir=str(self.dir), backfill_commits=False,